Justin Leung Mr. Cohn Essays - Physical Geography, Climatology

Justin Leung Mr. Cohn 5/25/17 Earth Science Environmental Effects of Global Warming: In order to talk about global warming, we must first learn what causes the greenhouse effect. A lot of the rays from the sun are absorbed by water vapor that is naturally in our atmosphere. Water vapor accounts for 80 percent of natural greenhouse warming. The remaining 20 percent is due to other gasses that are present in very small amounts. Carbon dioxide is also a big absorber of the sun's heat rays. Global warming will not just make sea levels rise, it will also affect sea life. Corals are intolerant of temperatures just a few degrees warmer than usual. Small increases in the temperature can kill corals. There have been problems with corals dying in the past few years because of increased water temperatures. Other marine life may migrate northward or southward because the waters are warmer. The warm water would make them think that they were in their natural habitat, when they were actually migrating toward the poles. Food would be scarce in their new habitat.Patterns of the c irculation of seawater are disturbed by global warming. Cold water moves along the sea floor towards the equator and warm water around the equator moves toward the poles across the surface of the ocean. It is known as thermohaline circulation. It is a very important process concerning ocean life. This circulation process brings oxygenated water to the sea floor. If this did not happen, Water along the sea floor would become depleted of the oxygen organisms need to survive.Fish, such as salmon, are also sensitive to the temperature of the water. During the summer when the water is warm, salmon have a higher metabolic rate. During the winter months, their metabolism slows down, which is good because less food is available. With global warming and increased water temperatures, salmon would have a higher metabolic rate, even if it were during the winter. Less food would be available for them and many salmon would die. Another impact of global warming will be that some diseases are likel y to be spread more easily. Mosquitoes are a major carrier of tropical diseases. Malaria outbreaks are usually confined to where the minimum winter temperature reaches no lower than 16 [degrees Celsius], according to the World Wide Fund for Nature, an independent conservation organization. Scientists are beginning to notice that malaria outbreaks are occurring outside these places. They are attributing this to increased temperatures from global warming. Places such as California, Texas, Florida, Michigan, and New York have had more cases of malaria. People from these states know that the summers have been very hot and humid lately. Malaria mosquitoes thrive in hot and humid weather. Increased temperatures and more rain in some areas will cause hot and humid weather, which will allow for mosquitoes to migrate to new places and spread the disease. A study suggests that malaria transmission would increase from 45% of the globe to 60%, if atmospheric levels of greenhouse gases reach con centrations equivalent to a doubling of CO2 since the industrial revolution1. Cholera and dengue fever are also carried by mosquitoes and thrive in warm and moist climates. As with malaria, more cholera and dengue fever outbreaks would occur because of migrating mosquitoes. As stated earlier, the warming of the oceans will increase the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere and will make global warming a problem of increasing severity. There are other ways that this happens too. As the weather becomes warmer, more organic matter in the ground will be decomposed. This causes carbon dioxide to be released into the atmosphere: If average temperatures would rise by .3 degrees C per decade, soils will release an amount of CO2 equal to nearly 20 percent of the projected amount released by combustion of fossil fuels. Gas hydrates will also decompose with warmer temperatures. Gas hydrates are icelike solids in which molecules of gas, mainly methane, are locked in the structure of water and are usually found in frozen soil or in ocean sediments. Scientists have found that gas hydrates worldwide hold a total of 10,000 billion metric tons of carbon, twice the amount contained in all the known coal,

Fiscal Stimulus - Three Key Ingredients

Fiscal Stimulus - Three Key Ingredients In late 2008 and early 2009, you could not turn on a TV or open a newspaper without hearing the term fiscal stimulus over and over again. The idea behind fiscal stimulus is a rather simple one - a reduction in consumer demand has resulted in an unusually high number of idle resources such as unemployed workers and closed factories. Because the private sector will not spend, the government can take the place of the private sector by increasing spending, thus putting these idle resources back to work. With their newly found income, these workers will be able to spend again, increase consumer demand. As well, workers who already have jobs will have increased confidence in the state of the economy and will increase their spending as well. Once consumer spending rises enough, the government can slow their spending, as they are no longer needed to pick up the slack.The theory behind fiscal stimulus depends on three basic factors. As we will see, in practice it is difficult to have more tha n two of these met at any one time. Fiscal Stimulus Factor 1 - Provide Stimulus Through Use of Idle Resources Fiscal stimulus only works if it uses idle resources - resources that would not otherwise be used by the private sector. Using employees and equipment that would otherwise be used by the private sector is of no use; in fact, it is detrimental if the private sector projects are of more value than government ones. This crowding out of private spending by public spending must be avoided.To avoid crowding out, great care needs to be taken in a fiscal stimulus package to target industries and geographic areas that contain idle resources. Re-opening a closed automotive plant and rehiring the laid off workers is an obvious way to do so, though in the real world it is difficult to target a stimulus plan so precisely.We cannot forget that the choice of what type of fiscal stimulus is chosen by politicians, and thus is a political issue as much as it is an economic one. There is a great likelihood that a politically popular but non-stimulating package will be chosen over one that is politicall y less popular but more beneficial to the economy. Fiscal Stimulus Factor 2 - Started Quickly A recession is not a particularly long-lived phenomenon (though it often feels like one). Since World War II recessions have lasted between 6 and 18 months, with an average duration of 11 months (source). Suppose we are in a long recession of 18 months, with another 6 months of slow growth afterward. This gives us a 24-month window in which to provide fiscal stimulus. During this period a number of things have to happen: The government has to recognize that the economy is in recession. This takes longer than one might imagine - the National Bureau of Economic Research did not recognize that the United States was in a recession until 12 months after it started.The government needs to develop a stimulus package.The stimulus bill needs to be made law and pass all the necessary checks and balances.The projects involved in the stimulus package need to be started. There may be delays in this step, particularly if the project involves the building of physical infrastructure. Environmental assessments need to be completed, private sector contractors need to bid on the project, workers need to be hired. All of this takes time.The projects, ideally, need to be completed. If they are not completed before the economy fully recovers, then we will certainly have crowding out as these employees and equipment would be of use to the private sector. All of these items need to happen in the window of, at best, 24 months. Meeting this task seems quite difficult, if not impossible. Fiscal Stimulus Factor 3 - Perform Reasonably Well on a Benefit-Cost Test Ideally, we should get good value for our money - the government should spend taxpayer dollars on items of real value to the taxpayer. Government spending will necessarily raise GDP because in the calculation of GDP the value of any government project is determined by its cost, not its value. But building roads to nowhere does nothing to increase our true standard of living.There is also the political issue here - that projects may be chosen on their political popularity or value to special interests, rather than on their merits.   Fiscal Stimulus - Meeting One Factor Is Hard; Three Is Impossible In Fiscal Stimulus - Unlikely To Work in the Real World we will see that not only are some of these factors hard enough to meet on their own, it is nearly impossible to meet more than two of them at any one time.